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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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Gold and Global Yield
August 19, 2019

Year-to-date (YTD), gold has climbed 15.7% while global government debt with negative nominal yields have climbed from near $10 trillion (T) to over $15T. Gold is up 26% year-over-year (YOY) through August 12, 2019 at a time when corporate and emerging market bonds have begun to sport negative yields. Technical and economic factors support U.S. Treasury bonds also sporting negative nominal yields in the next recession. Why not? Swiss and German government bonds currently yield -0.70% and -0.75%, respectively.

Historically, gold has been a non-yielding safe-haven asset in times of deflation and high inflation. Gold competed with government bonds that hedged deflation while offering yields near 3% to 5%. Considering this context, it is no surprise that gold demand from all sources in 2018 reached 4,345.1 tonnes (t), up 185.2t from the 4,159.9ts bought in 2017. Gold demand from all sources grew to 1,053.3t in the first quarter (Q1) of 2019, up 7% YOY.

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Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]