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John Serrapere publishes a weekly newsletter which includes in-depth research, charts & graphs and insights into current and past markets. Click the below links to view a preview of what the weekly inFocus newsletter has to offer. To view this week's entire newsletter as well as all past newsletters, you must create an account. 

Highlights

Inflation Risk Dominates
November 9, 2021
This week, three alternative versions of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are InFocus: the traditional capitalization (Cap)-weighted SPX, the equal-weighted, and the reverse-cap-weighted version.

Volatility Will Rise
September 21, 2021
For the rest of 2021 and beyond, markets are going to be very volatile. The Fed is going to make money worth less. How do we hedge? When stocks are at a reasonable value, they are a hedge against high inflation.

The FED Is Complacent or Clueless on Inflation Risk!
February 18, 2021
Arrow Insights favors global assets, moderate risk asset allocations and managed futures. Our investment rationale is based upon sustained weakness in the U.S. Dollar ($USD) attributable to yield repression policies enforced by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and excessive money supply growth due to money printing.


InFocus

Inflation, Interest Rates & Reverse Cap S&P 500
January 19, 2022

Normal is nebulous. The 2000-2019 Normal was much worse than the 20th Century Normal!

Introduction
The weekly InFocus reviews specific economic and market news within the context of macroeconomic factors relevant to specific financial markets. Each InFocus reviews asset classes and index performance within the context of asset allocation. The primary or secondary objectives are hedging inflation, deflation, or both. Each InFocus ends with reviewing a portfolio strategy model or index relevant to this process.

Since Jan 2020, InFocus Has Affirmed: 
  • A weak U.S. dollar attributable to U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policies that enable excessive money supply growth (money printing) and yield repression 
  • Higher inflation and higher interest rates, resulting in higher return dispersion among assets 
  • Weak economic growth fostering higher default-risk stemming from heavy debt burdens  
  • The underperformance of a traditional domestic portfolio relative to a global tactical portfolio  
and Favored: 
  • Tactical global portfolios with moderate risk asset allocations combined with long/short strategies

 

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