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Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.


Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures. Elementally AIMFV provides exposure to Managed Futures sectors. This exposure is complimented with innovative overlays that account for multi-factor seasonality, and a focus on efficient access to directional movements inherent in the underlying components of futures contracts.

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InFocus

Gold Shines for Tactical Asset Allocation
July 8, 2020

We remain in an economic transition period, as has been evident 39% of the time since 1920. The economy is attempting to move out of a Deflation Bust, which is more likely when annualized inflation is near 1% but seldom below -1% while Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stays below 1% and is at times negative. Annualized inflation is currently near 0.1% while GDP is expected to recover from annualized contractions of -5.1% and – 33% in Q1 and Q2 of 2020 with a contraction near -5% for all of 2020. GDP is expected to recover to about 5% in 2021 with inflation rates near 1% for all of 2020 and 2% for all of 2021. Interest rates are expected to remain low over the next two years.

Transition periods amplified by massive money supply growth enhance currency volatility and inflation volatility are times of high economic and price uncertainty. Global asset allocation strategies that employ precious metals and other currency hedges historically have performed well when these factors have been evident.


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InPerspective

Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings
7/24/17

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. The stock market, high yield and global risk markets were on fire until crude oil and commodities resumed their bear markets (begun in May 2011) in mid-January 2017. As of June 30, 2017, domestic stocks and lower quality foreign stock and bond markets remain in bull markets, but domestic high-yield bonds, real estate stocks, energy securities and technology shares have stalled or declined over the past few months.       

Stronger than expected economic data in the U.S. and Europe at the beginning of the year has ebbed into lackluster real gross domestic product growth (RGDP) below 2.0% year-to-date (YTD). Investor sentiment rages on as the bulls are running on a narrower street. High quality bonds and U.S. Treasury bond (TSY) yields are higher than they were prior to November 2016 but they are well below the yields had in mid-January 2017. [More]