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Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.


Arrow Insight Indexes

AI Announces Reconstitution Postponement for the AIQVM Index - July 2020

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index

The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures. Elementally AIMFV provides exposure to Managed Futures sectors. This exposure is complimented with innovative overlays that account for multi-factor seasonality, and a focus on efficient access to directional movements inherent in the underlying components of futures contracts.

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InFocus

U.S. Corporate Credit – Global Yield – Bullish Bias
October 27, 2020

The last InFocus, dated October 20, 2020, showed the cumulative balance sheet expansion of the three largest central banks (CBs): the Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (Fed). All three are engaged in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the marriage of their respective Treasury Departments (TSY, fiscal policy), and their respective monetary policies as a means of funding grants directly to citizens. Japan has been at MMT for more than a decade and Europe since 2012. The U.S. is the novice. The Fed’s marriage with TSY was in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020.

The pandemic shocked global CBs into printing money (quantitative easing, QE) to finance government debts (debt monetization to pay for current government expenditures). Saving Covid-19 victims was not the primary objective. The primary objective was saving corporations from default.


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InPerspective

Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings
7/24/17

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. The stock market, high yield and global risk markets were on fire until crude oil and commodities resumed their bear markets (begun in May 2011) in mid-January 2017. As of June 30, 2017, domestic stocks and lower quality foreign stock and bond markets remain in bull markets, but domestic high-yield bonds, real estate stocks, energy securities and technology shares have stalled or declined over the past few months.       

Stronger than expected economic data in the U.S. and Europe at the beginning of the year has ebbed into lackluster real gross domestic product growth (RGDP) below 2.0% year-to-date (YTD). Investor sentiment rages on as the bulls are running on a narrower street. High quality bonds and U.S. Treasury bond (TSY) yields are higher than they were prior to November 2016 but they are well below the yields had in mid-January 2017. [More]