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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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Growth & Inflation and Global Yield & Commodities
May 20, 2019

The Dow Jones (DJ) Global Yield Index is a globally diversified index with significant exposure in energy-related securities and foreign currencies. Global Yield hedges inflation better than broad commodity indexes such as the Reuters Jefferies CRB Index when inflation rises if nominal gross domestic product ($$GDP) is recording growth. The Positive Combo has historically enhanced firm profits and the credit standing of energy/commodity firms, which in turn lifts commodity security and commodity prices, enhancing the total return of high-yield global stocks and bonds. Figure 1 plots $$GDP’s 12-month rate of change in the top panel and its cumulative growth in the bottom panel from December 2005 through January 2019.  

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Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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