John Serrapere publishes a
weekly newsletter which includes in-depth research,
charts & graphs and insights into current and past markets. Click the below links to view a preview of what the weekly inFocus newsletter has to offer. To view this week's entire newsletter as well as all past newsletters, you must create an account.
Highlights
Inflation Risk Dominates
November 9, 2021
This week, three alternative versions of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are InFocus: the traditional capitalization (Cap)-weighted SPX, the equal-weighted, and the reverse-cap-weighted version.
Volatility Will Rise
September 21, 2021
For the rest of 2021 and beyond,
markets are going to be very volatile.
The Fed is going to make money worth less. How do we
hedge? When stocks are at a reasonable value, they are a hedge against high
inflation.
The FED Is Complacent or Clueless on Inflation Risk!
February 18, 2021
Arrow Insights favors global assets, moderate risk asset allocations and managed futures. Our investment rationale is based upon sustained weakness in the U.S. Dollar ($USD) attributable to yield repression policies enforced by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and excessive money supply growth due to money printing.
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QE to Infinity - Quelling Financial Instability Crisis #3
March 21, 2023
Introduction
Arrow Insights (AI) conducts research for the weekly
InFocus. AI reviews economic and market factors relevant to specific financial
markets. Each InFocus examines asset classes and index performance within an
asset allocation context. The primary or secondary objectives are hedging Inflation,
deflation, or both. Each InFocus reviews a portfolio strategy model or index
relevant to this process. A
balanced portfolio hedges recession, credit-default, inflation risk, and
quantitative easing (QE, Central Bank purchases of distressed assets). Here we
go again! On Sunday, Mar 19, 2023, UBS received $173 Billion in backstop
funds and guarantees from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to buy Credit Suisse
Bank at 82 cents a share. SNB also bailed out UBS in 2008 during the Global
Financial Crisis (GFC) with funding provided by U.S. dollar (USD) swap lines
from the Federal Reserve (Fed). UBS was quietly bailed out in 2008 to protect
global banks, including J.P. Morgan, from bankruptcy: “A
U.S. government audit located $16 trillion in cumulative loans pumped out by
the Fed to bail out U.S. and foreign megabanks, many of which were derivative
counterparties to banks supervised by the New York Fed. When the dollar swap
lines and other Fed bailout facilities are added, the bailout tab comes to $29
trillion, as detailed by the Levy Economics Institute. This morning, the UBS
and Credit Suisse deal looks more like a hit and run than a bank merger.” Wall Street on Parade, Pam Martens
and Russ Martens: Mar 20, 2023
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