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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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Global Stocks, U.S. Dollar & Yield Curve
April 15, 2019

Since year-end 2002, the MS World (ex. USA) Index has underperformed the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SPXTR or domestic stocks). Two alternative equity indexes, namely the Arrow Insights Dogs of the World (AIDOGS ex USA) and the Dorsey Wright Asset Management’s Country Stock Momentum Index (DWCSM), bested domestic stocks through April 8, 2019 (Figures 1 and 2). AIDOGS ex USA outperformed domestic stocks through May 2011, a time of U.S. dollar weakness (red area, Figure 1). AIDOGS ex USA lagged domestic stocks since then, as represented by the AIDOGS ex USA /SPXTR return ratio (top of Figure 1, black line), a time of dollar strength. Since 2002, AIDOGS ex USA/SPXTR has risen 126.3% while the dollar declined -5.8%.

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Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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