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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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AIDOGS, DJGYLDT & AIQVM – 2018 Declines & 2019 Rallies
February 13, 2019

Greg Schnell’s chart at (Figure 1) recently showed the German Stock Index (DAX, top) and New York Stock Exchange Composite (NYA, bottom) resting on or near their 20-week moving price averages (20 WMA). On February 8, 2019, DAX made a three-week low. Why does this matter? At previous market tops in 2000-2003 and 2007-2009, both indexes stalled near their 20 WMAs while making three-week lows in October 2000 and in May 2008, giving investors timely warnings of severe bear market declines.

At the end of last week, 11 of 17 major foreign markets were below their 20 WMAs, including the markets for all our major trading partners. Global and U.S. economic growth is expected to decline from 3.2% to 3% and from 2.9% to 2.4%, respectively, in 2018 to 2019, according to J.P. Morgan. Historically, global and domestic stocks discount slower growth in anticipation of weaker corporate earnings, which also was recently estimated at -1.4% for the S&P 500 in the first quarter of 2019.

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Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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