Inflation Raises Its Head – Tactical Foreign Stock Allocations
July 27, 2021
This week’s InFocus makes the case that economic fundamentals and equity values favor foreign stocks over domestic large company indexes. Going global in July 2021 makes eminent sense!
Foreign economies are playing catchup with the U.S.’s robust growth recorded since the shortest recession in history (Figure 1, February 2020 to April 2020). Since 2009, most notably Europe and most of the world have lagged the U.S. in terms of growth, profits, and stock returns. Currently, inflation is a concern in the U.S., but it is not much of a concern globally. Why? The U.S. opted for trillions (t) of dollars in direct payments to citizens and fiscal stimulus equal to 27% of its $22t economy. Europe’s direct money transfers were only 12% of its $20t economy. The same is true globally. Direct U.S. transfers caused money supply (M4) to exceed its historic year-over-year (YOY) 11% peak since 1967 by 10%. M4 normally grows 6%.