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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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Factor Risk – AIDOGS & Foreign Stock Performance
October 17, 2018

Last week, the relationship between declining and rising yield trends relative to the dominance of either inflation risk or default (deflation) risk were InFocus. This week, our InFocus is on foreign stock performance. Performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC since May 1, 2006) captures declining and rising yield trends and the dominance of inflation risk or default (deflation) risk.

Year-to-date through October 12, 2018, the Arrow Insights Dogs of the World Index – ex USA (AIDOGS) has recorded a 2.3% total return while the MSCI World Ex US has lost -9.7% (MSWORLD) and MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index (MSEMF) has lost -15.4%. For the most part, AIDOGS’s outperformance occurs when the U.S. dollar rises (USD, 3.4%, Figure 1). MSEMF has had a paltry 16.8% cumulative total return since the start of the GFC while AIDOGS has returned 189.3% and MSWORLD has lost -2.5% (Figure 2).

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Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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