Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.
Arrow Insight Indexes
A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.
Low unemployment rates, rising inflation and the strength in the late stage of an economic cycle have historically been times that moved the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) to hike its Fed Funds Rate (FF). We are in one of those times, which is also when the three-month T-bill yield (UST3M) rises in lockstep with FF. UST3M began to exceed the yield on 10-year T-notes (UST10Y) in August 2000 and August 2006, seven and 16 months before each of the last two recessions (April 2001- November 2001 and January 2008 - June 2009, Figure 1), respectively. Inversions occurred prior to four of the last five recessions since 1975.
2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with
investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped
off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]
Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]