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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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Currency Risk – AIDOGS & Emerging Market Performance
September 19, 2018

Year–to–date through September 14, 2018, the Arrow Insights Dogs of the World Index – ex USA (AIDOGS) recorded a 7.7% total return while the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index (MSEMF) has lost -11.2% (Figure 1). MSEMF has had a paltry 25.8% cumulative total return since the start of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) while AIDOGS has returned 205.6% (Figure 2). For the most part, AIDOGS's outperformance occurs when MSEMF plunges along with the Wisdom Tree Emerging Market Currency Fund (CEW, middle panels, Figure 1).

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Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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