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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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AIDOGS and the Dollar to Emerging Nation Currency War
August 15, 2018

Wall Street is focused on the plunge in the Turkish Lira, it’s stock market and emerging market stocks. The Arrow Insights (AI) Dogs of the World Index – ex USA (AIDOGS) has crushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index by 15.6% year-to-date through August 10, as Dogs gained 7.3% and emerging market stocks plunged -8.3% (Figure 1). Turkey’s currency value relative to the U.S. dollar ($USD) has been much greater than the relative disparity of their respective currencies that comprise the Wisdom Tree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW) in 2018. The Big Takeaway is that although AIDOGS has displayed higher volatility than the S&P 500 Index (not shown in Figures 1 and 2), at times it outperforms emerging market stocks, especially during times of extreme event risk, like a tariff-induced currency war between the U.S. and other nations.

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InPerspective (Quarterly)

Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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