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Welcome to Arrow Insights

Arrow Insights is a research firm with a focus on macro-economic factors that support both fundamental and technical analysis. We believe that theoretical research is most useful when it can actually be applied to tactical trading and asset allocation strategies.

Arrow Insight Indexes

A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index
The A.I. Managed Futures Volatility Index (AIMFV) is a long/short/flat diversified managed futures index. The index is both systematically and quantitatively based index of numerous components that serve as a proxy for exposures to economic sectors related to financial futures, commodity and volatility futures.

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Risk–on & Risk–off Yields & Long/Short Yield Strategies
September 21, 2017

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave rates unchanged on September 20, 2017, but reiterated its commitment to normalizing the Fed Funds Rate to about 1.7% in 2018 and to near 3% late in 2018 or early in 2019. The Fed downplayed a sluggish U.S. economy and its 1.7% inflation estimate for 2017. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast has declined from near 3.5% earlier in 2017 to 2.2%. InFocus repeatedly has shown that we have not been the same old U.S. economy that existed from 1967-1999 when non-recession four-year rolling GDP growth rates were at 3.2% to 8.5%. Slow growth and low inflation are primary factors in prompting investors to buy more long-term Treasury Bonds (TSY) and sell less, enabling a 7.5% return on TSY in 2017 through Sep 19, 2017. Those bullish on TSY expect the economy to remain weak and inflation low.

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InPerspective (Quarterly)

Performance, Expectations & Critical Warnings

2017 began with high expectations for economic robustness and with investors savoring the taste of President’s Trump’s victory, which was topped off with Republican control of all branches of the federal government. [More]

Performance Review & Risk/Reward Factors

2017 began with stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [More]

Recession Risk Factors, Yield Narratives & Markets

Throughout 2016, Arrow Insights has focused on the cost of money (interest), economic growth, default-deflation-inflation risks and how they impact traditional beta relative to alternative beta, and absolute return strategies. [More]


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